A new forecast report warns that India’s 2024 general election could be among the most competitive and unpredictable in the country’s modern history, marked by intense political rivalry, socioeconomic pressures and localized security risks.

The report titled “Forecast of Political, Social and Electoral Risks Ahead of the 2024 Indian General Election” was released on October 12, 2023 and prepared by risk analyst, political consultant, geopolitical analyst and columnist Bahauddin Foizee. The assessment examines the shifting political landscape as India prepares for its largest-ever democratic exercise.

According to the report, the long-standing dominance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is facing a more coordinated challenge than at any point in the past decade. The emergence of the INDIA coalition, bringing together the Congress Party with major regional players such as the Trinamool Congress, DMK and Samajwadi Party, signals a significant realignment of opposition forces.

The high-stakes states including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal are identified in the report as key battlegrounds where tight contests and entrenched social dynamics could heavily influence national outcomes.

The report highlights economic concerns, including rising inflation, unemployment and rural distress, as critical factors shaping voter sentiment, particularly among India’s vast youth population.

While the ruling party is expected to campaign on infrastructure development and international standing, the report notes that everyday economic pressures may blunt these advantages in many constituencies.

Social polarization driven by religion, caste and regional identity, amplified by social media and misinformation, is identified as a major risk factor. The report flags Manipur as the most severe operational risk due to ongoing ethnic tensions, while West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh are cited as potential flashpoints for localized election-related violence.

Despite these challenges, the report expects India’s Election Commission to mitigate widespread disruption through extensive security deployments and monitoring. The forecast concludes that while nationwide instability is unlikely, the 2024 election represents a “knife-edge contest” and a critical stress test for India’s democratic resilience.

The report calls for close monitoring, targeted risk mitigation in sensitive regions, and transparent communication to ensure the smooth conduct of what is shaping up to be one of India’s most consequential elections.